The Odds are out. Who will be the next Pope?- 2005-04-20

As the 117 Cardinals prepare to enter the secret conclave to elect the next Pontiff, the odd makers have been busy carefully crafting the odds for John Paul II’s successor. While there is plenty of speculation on whom the next Pope will be, four Cardinals have emerged as favorites.





Top Contenders (source:www.intertops.com)

Candidate	Odds
Dionigi Tettamanzi(Italy)	3.5
Francis Arinze (Nigeria)	5
Claudio Hummes (Brazil)	6
Oscar Andres Rodriguez Maradiaga(Honduras)	6.5

Tettamanzi, 71, is the archbishop of Milan, and a front runner due to his age and his conservative views. If the conclave is looking for an older transitional Pope, Cardinal Tettamanzi is a good candidate. On the other hand he is not considered to be widely traveled.

Arinze, 72, is the fourth-ranking cardinal in the Vatican and was a close friend and advisor to John Paul II. He also shared many of John Paul II’s conservative views on issues like the role of women in the church and contraception. The increasing presence of the church in Africa makes him a strong contender. The church estimates the number of Catholics in Africa has nearly doubled, from 50 to 90 million, in the past 20 years so appointing a Pope from Africa would only help to increase the church’s constituency in that continent.

Hummes, 70, is the archbishop of Sao Paolo, Brazil, and has also a very good chance of being elected. Brazil, the world's largest Catholic country with 100 million Catholics, is losing about 1 million Catholics a year, mainly to evangelical Protestant faiths, Hummes will be able to help the Vatican counter the popularity of emerging evangelical churches in the region.

Rodriguez Maradiaga, 62, is the archbishop of Tegucigalpa and is also a strong candidate. Latin America is home to about 45 percent of the world's Catholics and there is pressure to elect a Latin American Pope. While he has all the necessary credentials he is very out spoken and has put his foot in his mouth making inappropriate comments about the molestation scandal that occurred in the US church.

Keep in mind that John Paul II when elected was a complete surprise as he was never mentioned as a serious candidate. The Cardinals retire into the Sistine Chapel on the 18th of April so you still have time to place your bets.

The Guru

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